julia.endo said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.
DadBodDave said:Agreed, with a caveat about community reputation: it is a lagging indicator.
Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework. Printing the relevant bit and taking it with me.
julia.endo said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
I do not accept the framing. The question has been narrowed to the version that has a tidy answer, and the part that was dropped is the part the OP actually asked about.
I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.
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Shop Reference StandardsAdding the numbers, since they settle part of this. If you are comparing against somebody else’s result, check that you are comparing the same measurement taken the same way. Most of the apparent contradictions in these threads dissolve at that step.